Finan¢ial $en$e: Time To Fire Up My Blog

August 20, 2011

Time To Fire Up My Blog

It is time to fire up my blog gain. I am getting the distinct and foreboding feeling that we are entering a very precarious time for the Stock Market and I'd like to use my blog to help as many people as possible. The last time that I felt like this was in October/November 2007. This time period has many of the same characteristics as that time period:
- Many of the major banks in the world have rotten Balance Sheets. One could probably argue that the Balance Sheets were never fixed in the first place.
- Lack of political leadership.
- Downward spiraling consumer confidence.
- A lack of faith in the financial markets.
- The onset of a recession. Again, one could probably argue that we never exited the last recession. Were it not for the massive liquidity inflows from QE and QE2 this would be readily apparent.

But I'm not going to dwell on the reasons for the problems that we're in right now. I'd rather just advise people right now to start taking defensive actions to protect themselves from what promises to be a nasty time in the financial markets.

Barring some currently unforeseen miraculous event, I think it is advisable for people to significantly lighten up their exposures to the Stock Market. We are setting up for what could be a really big drop. I'm not talking about just the U.S. Stock Market, either. I have been and am exiting almost all positive equity exposures. Safe places to put your money would include in cash, U.S. Treasury bonds, money market mutual funds as long as you stay below the FDIC insured limits, and I think that one could also allocate 5 - 10% of their portfolio to precious metals - for the time being. If you need specific instruments to invest in, drop me a line and I can provide some.

I, of course, cannot be certain that I am right. Also, my "call" may also be early, but if the Market tanks like I think it might, I'd rather be early than late. The Market may very well finish off a potential "up" move of several hundred points to complete a "W Pattern", but this will not change the underlying economic problems that we are facing. And I don't feel that staying in the Market is worth the risk right now.

I will post more on the causes and other topics later, but I wanted to get this out tonight. Feel free to make any comments or ask questions in this blog. Chances are that if you have questions that other people have the same questions.

No comments:

Disclaimer:

David Keepes aka Dave K. is the writer for this blog titled "Finan¢ial $en$e". He is NOT a registered investment adviser nor does he work in any capacity for an SEC-registered, or any other, investment advisory firm. He writes in an educational capacity and urges and expects anyone who reads his posts and comments to not rely on them for accuracy, and for any reader to perform their own due diligence in regards to all investment and retirement matters. David holds a BA in Economics from the University of Illinois and an MBA from Eastern Illinois University. He is also a permanent Certified Cash Manager since 1995. He lives in Carrollton, Texas, with his wife and one child. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.

Financial $en$e BLOG ETIQUETTE:

1. You are a GUEST on this blog - act accordingly. Respect Dave K. and any other poster on this blog. Don't expect the blog to change to suit your idea of what the contents should be.

2. I will occasionally provide specific information on individual companies. HOWEVER, UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCES DOES THE INFORMATION PRESENTED HERE EVER REPRESENT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL STOCKS. Do not expect me to provide an ongoing detail of any of my personal trades or those made in and/or by me in any of my accounts. Not only is it tacky behavior to expect free services from a business-person, but I do not have the time to provide such a FREE service to an anonymous crowd (blog readers). In addition, there are specific SEC and other regulatory agency rules and regulations regarding what are and are not allowed in this regard and I have no intention of EVER violating ANY of them.

3. Any posts are fair game to be challenged, but try to buttress your posts/opinions with empirical facts, not subjective feelings. A challenge to your idea is not an attack on you personally. You, as the poster, have to differentiate. It is hard to read voice inflection, etc.., in comments, so take it all with a grain of salt. Blogging and commenting are great for developing thick skin.

4. Avoid ad hominem arguments. An ad hominem argument is a logical fallacy that involves replying to an argument by addressing the person presenting the argument as a basis for the argument being incorrect, as opposed to pointing out a flaw in the argument. The gist of an ad hominem is that it's an attack on the person rather than the argument. Don't attack the person. If you disagree and you must get your thought on record, do it in a civil way. Don't go after people. If you must respond, talk about the idea presented.

5. Bombastic comments designed to inflame other posters and draw attention to you should be avoided. Any attack on a blog is a public attack. You can look stupid, no matter how 'valid' your point may be.

6. Bravado and braggadocio about your trading prowess, returns, and wealth are signs of immaturity and will also generate bad karma for your future trades. In a related vein, the constant hyping of your holdings should also be avoided. If you are not aware of what constitutes posting your trades and what constitutes hyping, err on the side of silence. If you feel you must resort to this and the aforementioned bravado, go over to the Yahoo! message boards which are rife with similar losers and you'll feel right at home.

7. Cries about market manipulation, political agendas, whining that the Fed (or whoever) is corrupt, etc... ad nauseum, are often nothing more than an excuse for bad trades and the dialogue gets old fast. Don't bore the other posters.

8. Try to avoid cursing and comments with sexual connotations. There are ladies and gentlemen on this blog who don't appreciate that talk. When you write, keep in mind that your personality and your reputation are reflected in your words.

9. Write something of value and brief posts are usually better. This blog has grown significantly over the months. Don't be putting chaff out there that keeps bloggers from seeing the gems. If there is an article that you think is relevant, post the link instead of cutting and pasting the entire article. Exceptionally pithy posts may be worthy of a COMMON CENT$ Recognition Award.

10. If you're a poor typist and/or grammatically challenged, use a spell and grammar checker before posting. Read what you type. You have time to think it through!

Bottom Line: All that personal attacks, inappropriate and immature comments do is bring this site, its purpose, and the dialogue to a screeching halt. It chases off the people who have been coming here, helping to build it up and prevents new comers from wanting to even hang around, let alone get involved. If that is your intent, then get your own blog.