Marty
Chenard at StockTiming.com made the following observation this morning:
“Conspicuously
missing is the banter from the press about Greece. Bond holder
negotiations stalled yesterday. Bond Holders wanted just over a 4%
interest rate. The deal that was being dumped on them was just over
a 65% loss on the face vale of the current bonds.
Germany
wanted the banks to take a very small haircut on these negotiations because
many banks would become insolvent if the amount is too much due of the leverage
factor used by banks. This is a big deal, and one should wonder why
the press is avoiding the topic as much as they are.
Also
a concern not being discussed much, is Greece's dependency on Iranian oil to
the tune of 14% of their total oil consumption. There was huge fear
about this on Friday because if that oil was lost due to U.S. sanctions, then
that would have a very negative effect on Greece's economy and its
ability to meet its bond obligations. So, what happened
last night? The European Union joined the U.S. sanctions
recommendation and formally adopted an oil embargo against Iran.
Greece immediately wanted oil protections from other countries to offset the
embargo actions that would injure them. (Note: Iran is again rattling
its sabre today about shutting down the Strait of Hormuz).
Tie
all that to the British profit picture, and there are plenty of problems that
our media seems to be overlooking or down playing.”
Marty’s
site is excellent and he issues a free daily e-mail about the stock market or
certain aspects of it. Usually, these
are of a technical variety. That’s what
makes this non-technical observation all the more interesting – and relevant. This Market STILL remains very much so, a
headline-driven market and one should remain very cautious. Whether there is anything to Marty’s
observation remains to be seen and I would not dismiss it.
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